Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
15.3 miles South-West of Independence
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.3 miles South-West of Independence
36.6144°N, 118.3417°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 09:37:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2397h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
75.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
7.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.30
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
23.6 km
Pred. 18.0 km vs actual 5.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c579eb13681a8da10324149edbfbc81f0a68834b9225f0e47ae77b91caef3633
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_044602_pred-36.61--118.34-20260821T0937
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 11:46:06 PST
Source Batch
20260513_044602_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:36.210613+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.