Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
10.2 miles North-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.2 miles North-East of Ojai
34.5669°N, 119.1380°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 14:19:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
13.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2460h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
206.3 km
81.3 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
29.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
20.6 km
Pred. 13.6 km vs actual 7.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
90156d8ebd3abf6e23e6806abbdd01c91a552a3e9776c4d68f08ab04f5ed67b0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_183631_pred-34.57--119.14-20260824T1419
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 01:36:36 PST
Source Batch
20260513_183631_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:38.093369+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.