Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
17.2 miles South-East of Prather
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.2 miles South-East of Prather
36.8076°N, 119.3266°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 08:19:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2382h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
156.5 km
31.5 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
9.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M3.35 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 10.3 km vs actual 5.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
aa069c1dfc3ca7dc04f8a6a17d25e96449005c96212993a7e2c5e81a288955ba
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_183631_pred-36.81--119.33-20260821T0819
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 01:36:36 PST
Source Batch
20260513_183631_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:38.093369+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.