Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
14.2 miles West of Ludlow
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.2 miles West of Ludlow
34.7769°N, 116.4015°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 23:01:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
444h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
112.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
16.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.31
Predicted M2.41 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.6 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 13.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f8cfbb58a24c2770354057550f2d445b37588ccad7eb3da75638d60826d9d105
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_035742_pred-34.78--116.40-20260601T2301
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 10:57:47 PST
Source Batch
20260514_035742_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:30.548559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.