Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
25.4 miles West of Santa Cruz
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.4 miles West of Santa Cruz
36.9482°N, 122.4906°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 02:32:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2410h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
16.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.93
Predicted M3.23 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
19.9 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 7.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e51ebf580fc217cce9640ad9f6039b77dcdb0a9c4fc6721dc14c40c2d959a029
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_085017_pred-36.95--122.49-20260823T0232
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 15:50:21 PST
Source Batch
20260514_085017_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:31.724255+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.