Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
12.8 miles North of Soledad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.8 miles North of Soledad
36.6088°N, 121.2964°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 03:38:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2315h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
13.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
40.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
17.1 km
Pred. 14.9 km vs actual 2.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
30a607da900e1ba45c22f87e836e576d96c079832579320e3d685525f32440c0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_085158_pred-36.61--121.30-20260819T0338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 15:52:02 PST
Source Batch
20260514_085158_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:32.602444+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.