Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
25.4 miles West of Santa Cruz
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.4 miles West of Santa Cruz
36.9482°N, 122.4906°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 23:26:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2047h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
122.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
7.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M3.23 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
22.8 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
64543375ba2e603651620f941c3cb2478b4e586d9ac7c9ff5e960c9aba3b04e2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_085158_pred-36.95--122.49-20260807T2326
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 15:52:02 PST
Source Batch
20260514_085158_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:32.602444+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.