Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
30.2 miles South-East of Hayfork
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.2 miles South-East of Hayfork
40.2068°N, 122.8363°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of May 2026
May 30, 2026 13:05:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
374h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
51.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
36.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.92
Predicted M3.32 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
9.4 km
Pred. 4.6 km vs actual 4.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bff7aaccf1d461eb327edbb2017b21a9aa2202fd8ef83eb52c99a745c54b9458
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_155306_pred-40.21--122.84-20260530T1305
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 22:53:11 PST
Source Batch
20260514_155306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:33.480420+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.