Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
12.1 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.1 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3035°N, 119.0442°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 22:28:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
281h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
3.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
37.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M3.55 vs actual M3.7
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 7.5 km vs actual 11.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0f1e350eaa164cef4a9a3269f986f4c86bb6c7ca562903d945826b4c78f37fc7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_215016_pred-39.30--119.04-20260526T2228
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 04:50:21 PST
Source Batch
20260514_215016_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:35.465397+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.