Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
5.5 miles North-West of Essex
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.5 miles North-West of Essex
34.8062°N, 115.2951°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of June 2026
Jun 04, 2026 05:11:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
464h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
121.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
38.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
24.2 km
Pred. 8.2 km vs actual 16.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d60f64c27bb3afd9dbb13da65989e2375a53f5a5a81cd7bab353053fc4e6aa16
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_131659_pred-34.81--115.30-20260604T0511
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 20:17:04 PST
Source Batch
20260515_131659_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:20.780960+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.