Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
14.1 miles North of Pinecrest
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.1 miles North of Pinecrest
38.3867°N, 119.9960°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of June 2026
Jun 04, 2026 06:39:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
466h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
111.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
15.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
18.3 km
Pred. 7.5 km vs actual 10.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ff51e082c8d40b96990263d6a660b87a80103a438cf107f48d16deffcf656458
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_131659_pred-38.39--120.00-20260604T0639
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 20:17:04 PST
Source Batch
20260515_131659_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:20.780960+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.