Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
26.4 miles North of Beatty
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.4 miles North of Beatty
37.2757°N, 116.8871°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 22:29:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2491h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
57.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
22.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.38
Predicted M2.32 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5beba48e2a40cf1a3f4efedad030571964e0f7856a305647b1b5ed8c2a53bef5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_200706_pred-37.28--116.89-20260827T2229
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 03:07:10 PST
Source Batch
20260515_200706_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:27.004257+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.