Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
3.8 miles North-West of Aspendell
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.8 miles North-West of Aspendell
37.3782°N, 118.5706°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 15:12:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2484h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
24.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
21.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
6.6 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 1.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6d0e3afe26d7a416852dc8793a4671067f4bd895bd3e7328fc91dc1b5bef7968
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_200706_pred-37.38--118.57-20260827T1512
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 03:07:10 PST
Source Batch
20260515_200706_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:27.004257+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.