Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
8.3 miles South-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.3 miles South-West of Warm Springs
38.1111°N, 116.5044°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 21:47:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2490h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
151.9 km
26.9 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
23.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.62 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8f9787c142b0b9ce8dec4673e30dfbdca1b9fe43317c33c66e22019d33f0d12a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_200706_pred-38.11--116.50-20260827T2147
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 03:07:10 PST
Source Batch
20260515_200706_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:27.004257+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.