Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
24.7 miles East of Covelo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.7 miles East of Covelo
39.8984°N, 122.8029°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 20:32:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2393h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
46.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
10.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M2.14 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 2.4 km vs actual 10.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
07cbc53b7f698e3c55d13ec0596306666798485b68b805cd4873aed448b27c88
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_200706_pred-39.90--122.80-20260823T2032
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 03:07:10 PST
Source Batch
20260515_200706_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:27.004257+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.