Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.4 miles South-East of Malibu
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.4 miles South-East of Malibu
33.9693°N, 118.6493°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 23:24:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2315h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
19.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
26.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M2.46 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.7 km
Pred. 8.7 km vs actual 8.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
50595e4c3c9b23364d3b5f22839f58814275422c66540c95ebe3e8198f2218cb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_042705_pred-33.97--118.65-20260820T2324
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:27:10 PST
Source Batch
20260516_042705_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:02.985747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.