Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
4.2 miles South-East of Gilroy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.2 miles South-East of Gilroy
36.9799°N, 121.4989°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of August 2026
Aug 25, 2026 04:53:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2417h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
111.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
45.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
16.1 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 9.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
61749ec0aebd3259c9b0a15df651e914a3279b0461c51b4aeab50a9ba54dfb3c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_042705_pred-36.98--121.50-20260825T0453
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:27:10 PST
Source Batch
20260516_042705_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:02.985747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.