Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
26.6 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.6 miles North of Warm Springs
38.5682°N, 116.3647°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 21:16:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2481h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
244.6 km
119.6 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
0.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.5 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 6.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8e601c558b682c0a21ba5ce62e5e5b55f86402e34ab3942341aad65f65d66dee
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_042705_pred-38.57--116.36-20260827T2116
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:27:10 PST
Source Batch
20260516_042705_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:02.985747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.