Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
32.8 miles South-West of Eureka NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
32.8 miles South-West of Eureka NV
39.2825°N, 116.4992°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 18:13:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2502h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
215.3 km
90.3 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
4.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M2.33 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
11.8 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 6.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
33d214472f79c4e604b0be50f91d72e356608e4756dccf44306ded53734a2096
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_042705_pred-39.28--116.50-20260828T1813
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:27:10 PST
Source Batch
20260516_042705_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:02.985747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.