Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
40.4 miles West of Piercy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
40.4 miles West of Piercy
39.7741°N, 124.5032°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 22:31:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2315h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
90.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
12.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.45
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
19.8 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 13.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2b8b77b7b70bf3bb4980970bbfe14e50f3b3b1221d98d22114de92864732896f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_042705_pred-39.77--124.50-20260820T2231
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:27:10 PST
Source Batch
20260516_042705_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:02.985747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.