Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
11.4 miles North-East of Taft
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.4 miles North-East of Taft
35.2574°N, 119.3122°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 02:32:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2362h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
46.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.53
Predicted M3.23 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
43.9 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 31.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bee6c4b9bee5eb59371cac2db006a0bf6909433813256d10c12f647caf66ddcc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_092947_pred-35.26--119.31-20260823T0232
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 16:29:52 PST
Source Batch
20260516_092947_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:05.012434+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.