Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
7.0 miles West of Malibu
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles West of Malibu
34.0424°N, 118.9008°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 14:48:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
23.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2465h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
119.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
5.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.02
Predicted M3.52 vs actual M2.5
- 0.02 over limit
Depth Error
27.6 km
Pred. 23.0 km vs actual 4.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e45d6a4056dea0a1246c3c5edc33a74c29f6c4e4c544fad7906914f9a3dc780c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_143632_pred-34.04--118.90-20260827T1448
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 21:36:37 PST
Source Batch
20260516_143632_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:06.834867+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.