Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
78.5 miles West of San Simeon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
78.5 miles West of San Simeon
35.2520°N, 122.4994°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 02:32:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2356h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
197.3 km
72.3 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
1.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.63
Predicted M3.23 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
17.8 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
120469891520cadda8a28c9db336bddfd0a00574bc0817ed4074994741b5709b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_143632_pred-35.25--122.50-20260823T0232
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 21:36:37 PST
Source Batch
20260516_143632_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:06.834867+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.