Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
100.7 miles South-West of Daly City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
100.7 miles South-West of Daly City
36.6086°N, 123.7000°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 03:38:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2262h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
212.2 km
87.2 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
43.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
31.0 km
Pred. 14.9 km vs actual 16.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ace716db78ef63b35a4a520b0a1577011b9bd81b238c5049cee29cd2dc1c4f8a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_143816_pred-36.61--123.70-20260819T0338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 21:38:20 PST
Source Batch
20260516_143816_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:07.706004+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.