Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
6.2 miles North-East of Weed Heights
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.2 miles North-East of Weed Heights
39.0247°N, 119.0547°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 12:18:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2254h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
36.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
18.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.91
Predicted M3.41 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 8.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4d9092f62ce560d5db20046d5dcf2cea9860fffcd19e7d22eb570363fb4fb80c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_064414_pred-39.02--119.05-20260819T1218
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 17, 2026 13:44:20 PST
Source Batch
20260517_064414_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:51.920681+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.