Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
7.7 miles North-East of Weed Heights
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.7 miles North-East of Weed Heights
39.0595°N, 119.0578°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 12:18:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2239h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
32.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
18.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.91
Predicted M3.41 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 8.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7606ba7f2407567409f6736d0e53dc2ba0ddc85e724653d8db4d5e626adc9fb1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_214417_pred-39.06--119.06-20260819T1218
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 04:44:22 PST
Source Batch
20260517_214417_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:57.243100+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.