Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
15.8 miles North-West of Williams
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.8 miles North-West of Williams
39.2955°N, 122.3825°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 14:58:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2441h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
64.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
19.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.18 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.7 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 1.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c0c0b41d9a32e52075f8fabd80f2bb1cca126fe08c938026845fbd5fd0371985
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_143243_pred-39.30--122.38-20260828T1458
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 21:32:48 PST
Source Batch
20260518_143243_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:46.582270+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.