Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
4.8 miles North-West of Aspendell
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.8 miles North-West of Aspendell
37.3940°N, 118.5743°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of June 2026
Jun 08, 2026 18:25:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
500h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
119.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
35.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 8.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cc982d5d9bfb6ade6af39c8a51f035f391d44d41a00067bd4c35f6706c530db2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_144708_pred-37.39--118.57-20260608T1825
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 21:47:14 PST
Source Batch
20260518_144708_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:47.473514+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.