Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
5.5 miles North-West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.5 miles North-West of Calipatria
33.1563°N, 115.6023°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 19:24:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2203h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
110.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
5.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.65
Predicted M3.15 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
11.8 km
Pred. 3.5 km vs actual 8.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
82e640f55c5bcbcf792005c0c8773e2ae640d0c02a350723ce015abf629b1e1a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_163427_pred-33.16--115.60-20260820T1924
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 23:34:32 PST
Source Batch
20260520_163427_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:31.534967+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.