Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
25.9 miles South-East of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.9 miles South-East of Empire
40.2449°N, 119.1158°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of June 2026
Jun 09, 2026 11:55:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
454h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
107.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
29.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
15.7 km
Pred. 9.9 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
106391d34f96e53717ec733ed3e33077e8e93443d5de2b08080015f4b07bd166
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260521_064653_pred-40.24--119.12-20260609T1155
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 21, 2026 13:46:59 PST
Source Batch
20260521_064653_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:10.978154+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.