Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
5.0 miles West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.0 miles West of Calipatria
33.1443°N, 115.5979°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 00:36:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2187h 10m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
102.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
41.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M3.45 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
9.7 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 4.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4c3d9939cbd8a15fe845496115e3efed132003cf043ca0df542e3f8775004fdb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260521_142609_pred-33.14--115.60-20260821T0036
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 21, 2026 21:26:14 PST
Source Batch
20260521_142609_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:14.121630+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.