Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
20.4 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.4 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4714°N, 116.4693°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of June 2026
Jun 11, 2026 04:43:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
474h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
58.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
40.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.01 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 3.2 km vs actual 13.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ebe8296544351b4f303e862c3489f994bc1bd0b1202d4ec6db1b7bee25608b1c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_031737_pred-38.47--116.47-20260611T0443
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 10:17:43 PST
Source Batch
20260522_031737_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:55.568457+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.