Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
18.7 miles South-West of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.7 miles South-West of Crystal Springs
37.1089°N, 115.3704°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 02:54:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2344h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
112.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
36.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.55
Predicted M2.95 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
11.0 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 5.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
875b500be1040793953a092c81708c225b076f67ef6e9fcbda4c3b0d489592a6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_032313_pred-37.11--115.37-20260828T0254
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 10:23:19 PST
Source Batch
20260522_032313_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:59.262176+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.