Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
8.8 miles North-West of Inyokern
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.8 miles North-West of Inyokern
35.7616°N, 118.0522°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 21:45:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2330h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
38.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
22.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.18
Predicted M3.18 vs actual M2.0
- 0.18 over limit
Depth Error
8.5 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 2.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c890ceaa00ae9d030e105388b2e642ccc054d8c8b9f97a955a93dd3350f22b7f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_123820_pred-35.76--118.05-20260827T2145
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 19:38:25 PST
Source Batch
20260522_123820_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:07.609471+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.