Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
41.6 miles South-West of Rancho Palos Verdes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
41.6 miles South-West of Rancho Palos Verdes
33.3220°N, 118.9025°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of July 2026
Jul 08, 2026 16:51:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1116h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
60.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
42.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M3.09 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 14.6 km vs actual 0.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ff9fdb35229178ff94593d4ad93a1f4a89760cae7db54ea94ce7862662f5cadb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_214848_pred-33.32--118.90-20260708T1651
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 23, 2026 04:48:54 PST
Source Batch
20260522_214848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:08.640463+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.