Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
0.9 miles North-East of Mill Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.9 miles North-East of Mill Creek
40.3406°N, 121.5030°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 19:55:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2343h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
185.4 km
60.4 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
7.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
22.0 km
Pred. 16.2 km vs actual 5.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
aa0a0d377d1228f190735c12ae42314afa3c154089d55fe9e7ccd64bd4e33ab3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_215044_pred-40.34--121.50-20260828T1955
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 23, 2026 04:50:49 PST
Source Batch
20260522_215044_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:09.804317+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.