Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
9.6 miles South-West of Denio
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.6 miles South-West of Denio
41.8874°N, 118.7578°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 12:07:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2311h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
472.6 km
347.6 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
24.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.50
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
20.4 km
Pred. 14.6 km vs actual 5.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bc769f9c270fd983509ed03783b11a36730cdf1ce17c66d6b0be237afc5ee620
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_215044_pred-41.89--118.76-20260827T1207
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 23, 2026 04:50:49 PST
Source Batch
20260522_215044_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:09.804317+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.