Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
2.5 miles South of Lytle Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.5 miles South of Lytle Creek
34.2240°N, 117.5194°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of June 2026
Jun 27, 2026 09:43:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
295h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
124.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
20.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.16 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
11.9 km
Pred. 4.4 km vs actual 7.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d43127011749e38cef955a74c8ae3dfef4a6b03bb46099ee0cd09045fa51d63d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260614_191915_pred-34.22--117.52-20260627T0943
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 15, 2026 02:19:18 PST
Source Batch
20260614_191915_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:37.281100+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.