Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2832°N, 119.0702°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of July 2026
Jul 04, 2026 15:07:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
399h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
2.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
43.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
16.0 km
Pred. 8.0 km vs actual 8.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6bc599483d41224326add960fb49fd6b88b294d553508dcc8e822456d9d73e74
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260617_162519_pred-39.28--119.07-20260704T1507
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 17, 2026 23:25:24 PST
Source Batch
20260617_162519_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:28.527186+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.