Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
40.1 miles South of Jacumba Hot Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
40.1 miles South of Jacumba Hot Springs
32.0513°N, 116.3267°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of July 2026
Jul 03, 2026 07:11:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
352h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
43.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.41 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
17.5 km
Pred. 14.9 km vs actual 2.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
90a9052b016699e3c8013d47eb972493bc3f0086bc179a97c6726efd9815a025
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260618_073309_pred-32.05--116.33-20260703T0711
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 18, 2026 14:33:14 PST
Source Batch
20260618_073309_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:32:44.851388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.