Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
40.1 miles South of Jacumba Hot Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
40.1 miles South of Jacumba Hot Springs
32.0513°N, 116.3267°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of March 2023
Mar 27, 2023 16:09:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
51.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
39.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.41 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
30.9 km
Pred. 14.9 km vs actual 16.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0ce040ac518972def3d681b731fc0711e1f6eaab6ae47f7e6b940791d9e49d84
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260618_073844_pred-32.05--116.33-20230327T1609
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 18, 2026 14:38:49 PST
Source Batch
20260618_073844_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:32:47.247371+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.