Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
6.3 miles North of Portola
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles North of Portola
39.8972°N, 120.4320°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of March 2023
Mar 30, 2023 14:03:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
107.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
25.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.39
Predicted M2.01 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
29.3 km
Pred. 15.3 km vs actual 14.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cb02a3c0db694eb7381bc9fa14ad221acdd96350846ebaf807ee9798d157b617
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260618_073844_pred-39.90--120.43-20230330T1403
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 18, 2026 14:38:49 PST
Source Batch
20260618_073844_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:32:47.247371+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.