Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
25.7 miles North-West of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.7 miles North-West of Austin
39.6742°N, 117.4943°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of June 2026
Jun 24, 2026 03:33:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
115.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
34.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.16 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
16.0 km
Pred. 4.8 km vs actual 11.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0cad222b968e8e01819cfd67166fb95c2274e707ae47e1c460de56fc23a24dc7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260623_082501_pred-39.67--117.49-20260624T0333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 23, 2026 15:25:04 PST
Source Batch
20260623_082501_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:31:45.489329+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.