Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
11.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2843°N, 119.0672°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of July 2026
Jul 10, 2026 01:51:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
358h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
114.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
41.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.0 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.5 km
Pred. 9.9 km vs actual 9.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f60b9b0b5684ced9dc6dcecbc139cd9183efb662d05593b8d0d65249900914dc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260624_201923_pred-39.28--119.07-20260710T0151
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 25, 2026 03:19:26 PST
Source Batch
20260624_201923_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-25 08:31:36.263250+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.