Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
16.6 miles East of Lakehead
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.6 miles East of Lakehead
40.8585°N, 122.0750°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of June 2026
Jun 26, 2026 21:01:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
41h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
113.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
44.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.09 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
16.9 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 11.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
12b402aa5be69816f4d77f25c853821105e2c9b457a8e6bedccb3f1797b9d501
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260624_201923_pred-40.86--122.08-20260626T2101
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 25, 2026 03:19:26 PST
Source Batch
20260624_201923_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-25 08:31:36.263250+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.