Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
26.5 miles North-East of Fernley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.5 miles North-East of Fernley
39.9609°N, 119.0550°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of July 2026
Jul 10, 2026 19:16:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
337h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
94.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
47.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.14
Predicted M2.26 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
16.6 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 7.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c3bbaa45de680b8b9c906d7c761f8e848b0340a40adda0243e5fe31579691960
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260626_110706_pred-39.96--119.06-20260710T1916
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 26, 2026 18:07:10 PST
Source Batch
20260626_110706_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 06:57:29.208479+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.