Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
11.4 miles North-East of Yerington
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.4 miles North-East of Yerington
39.1271°N, 119.0505°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of July 2026
Jul 06, 2026 04:38:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
165h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
93.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
39.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.24 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
9.5 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 1.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7769dd7db07ea2f949f1742c7df4a644d5e8fd33e95bb065363209c650dc502b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260629_000828_pred-39.13--119.05-20260706T0438
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 29, 2026 07:08:33 PST
Source Batch
20260629_000828_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 08:31:26.246634+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.