Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
6.0 miles South of Stony Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.0 miles South of Stony Creek
36.5390°N, 118.8132°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of July 2026
Jul 14, 2026 20:13:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
103.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
8.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.58
Predicted M2.12 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.9 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 7.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
897b3d0a06e09acb7a5a21a6218800379c9e067b6070e128f1e88ce3fbf785a2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-36.54--118.81-20260714T2013
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.