Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.3 miles South-West of Brentwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.3 miles South-West of Brentwood
37.8775°N, 121.7641°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of July 2026
Jul 16, 2026 18:07:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
17h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
105.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
13.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
14.9 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 11.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b37285c6aa4870f50068a97fae05989fd9b0bb003f0d95204b2443398d2fd5f7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-37.88--121.76-20260716T1807
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.