Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
2.4 miles West of Topaz
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.4 miles West of Topaz
38.5427°N, 119.5592°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of July 2026
Jul 15, 2026 01:57:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
103.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
40.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.55
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fe515b4f8c99ed7ee40b461c950675d052d7ff9cd8a72d8cc61f541187bfe9e0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-38.54--119.56-20260715T0157
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.